Former President George H.W. Bush in intensive care: spokesman






AUSTIN, Texas (Reuters) – Former President George H.W. Bush is in the intensive care unit of a Houston hospital and is in “guarded condition,” family spokesman Jim McGrath said Wednesday.


“The President is alert and conversing with medical staff, and is surrounded by family,” McGrath said in a statement.






Bush was admitted to the intensive care unit on Sunday, McGrath said.


(Reporting By Corrie MacLaggan; Editing by Paul Thomasch)


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Apple still can’t build enough iPad minis







A common issue often presents itself when Apple (AAPL) launches new products: it can’t build them fast enough. We’ve seen it time and time again, most recently when Apple launched the iPhone 5 and 150,000 dedicated factory workers still couldn’t keep up with demand. Now, a report has surfaced claiming that Apple’s manufacturing partners in the Far East can’t build units fast enough to keep pace with Apple’s iPad mini orders.


[More from BGR: Microsoft Surface trampled at the bottom of the tablet pile this Christmas]






According to Digitimes’ supply chain sources, Apple’s parts suppliers have prepared enough components to build between 10 million and 12 million iPad mini tablets in the fourth quarter to accomodate heavy demand. Apple’s manufacturing partners are only expected to ship 8 million assembled units, however.


[More from BGR: Mark Cuban: Nokia Lumia 920 ‘crushes’ the iPhone 5]


The report states that yield rates are improving though, and Apple is expected to ship 13 million iPad mini tablets in the first quarter of 2013.


This article was originally published by BGR


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Cuba has much to lose as ally Chavez fights cancer






HAVANA (AP) — Cubans who were tuned in to the nightly soap opera on a recent Saturday received a sudden burst of bad news, from the other side of the Caribbean.


State TV cut to the presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez revealed that his cancer had returned. Facing his fourth related surgery in 18 months, he grimly named Vice President Nicolas Maduro as his possible successor.






The news shocked not only Venezuelans but millions of Cubans who have come to depend on Chavez’s largesse for everything from subsidized oil to cheap loans. Venezuela supplies about half of Cuba‘s energy needs, meaning the island’s economy would be in for a huge shock and likely recession if a post-Chavez president forced the island to pay full price for oil.


Despite the drama, the news likely wasn’t a surprise to Cuba’s Communist government, and not only because Chavez has been receiving medical care on the island.


Havana learned important lessons about overdependence when the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union threw the country into a deep crisis. Trying to avoid the consequences of a similar cut, the Cuban government has been diversifying its portfolio of economic partners in recent years, looking to Asia, Europe and other Latin American nations, and is only about half as dependent on Caracas as it was on the former Soviet Union.


Cuba is also working to stimulate its economy back home by allowing more private-sector activity, giving a leg up to independent and cooperative farming, and decentralizing its sugar industry. A stronger Cuban economy would in theory have more hard currency to pay for energy and other imports.


Also getting off the ground is an experiment with independent nonfarm collectives that should be more efficient than state-run companies. And next year, another pilot program is planned for decentralized state enterprises that will enjoy near-autonomy and be allowed to control most of their income.


“This could have good results,” said a Cuban economist who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to talk to the foreign media. Cuba “is also thinking of boosting foreign investment in areas of the national economy, including in restricted areas like the sugar industry.”


One of the country’s top goals has been to make the island’s struggling economy less dependent on a single benefactor.


Under the leadership of Chavez, who regularly calls former Cuban President Fidel Castro his ideological father and has followed parts of the Communist leader’s governance playbook, Venezuela has sent billions of dollars a year to Cuba through trade and petro-aid.


Bilateral trade stood at a little over $ 8 billion last year, much of it in Cuban imports of oil and derivatives. In return, Havana primarily provides Venezuela with technical support from Cuban teachers, scientists and other professionals, plus brigades of health care workers. Analysts say those services are overvalued by outside standards, apparently costing as much as $ 200,000 per year per doctor. Experts peg the total Venezuelan subsidy to Cuba at around $ 2 billion to $ 4 billion a year.


While business with Venezuela makes up 40 percent of all Cuban trade, it’s still a far cry from the days when the Communist Eastern Bloc accounted for an estimated 80 percent.


“A (loss of) $ 2 billion to $ 4 billion would definitely pinch. But it is not the same relative weight as the sudden complete withdrawal of the Soviet subsidies in the early ’90s,” said Richard E. Feinberg, a professor of international political economy at the University of California, San Diego. “Cuba’s not going to go back to the days of bicycles. Could it throw the Cuban economy into recession? Yes.”


That kind of resilience would result largely from Cuba’s successes in courting foreign investors for joint ventures.


Last month, authorities announced a deal with a subsidiary of Brazil’s Odebrecht to manage a sugar refinery, a rare step in an industry that has long been largely off limits to foreign involvement.


China has invested in land-based oil projects, and along with Canada is a key player in Cuba’s important nickel industry. Spain has ventures in tourist hotels and tobacco, while French company Pernod Ricard helps export Cuban liquors. And since 2009, Brazil has been a partner in a massive project to modernize and expand the port at Mariel, west of the capital.


Trade with China alone was $ 1.9 billion and rising in 2010, and Raul Castro paid a visit to Chinese and Vietnamese leaders earlier this year to help cement Asian relationships.


But while Havana says it wants to boost foreign investment, obstacles remain. The approval process for investment projects can be long and cumbersome, and pilferage, disincentives to productivity and government intervention can cut into efficiencies. Foreign companies also pay a sky-high payroll tax.


Feinberg, who wrote a report on foreign investment in Cuba published this month by the U.S. think tank the Brookings Institution, said that while a number of foreign companies are successfully doing business with the island, others have run into problems, sending a chilly message to would-be investors. In particular he noted the recent cases of a government takeover of a food company run by a Chilean businessman accused of corruption, and contentious renegotiations of a contract with Dutch-British personal and home care products giant Unilever amid shifting government demands.


“The Cuban government has to decide that it wants foreign investment unambiguously. I think now there seem to be divisions among the leadership,” Feinberg said. “Some are afraid that foreign investment compromises sovereignty, creates centers of power independent of the leadership or is exploitative.”


He estimated Cuba has left on the table about $ 20 billion in missed investment over the past decade by not following practices typical of other developing nations. Instead, Cuba received $ 3.5 billion in foreign investment in that period.


Experts say a worst-case scenario for Chavez wouldn’t automatically translate into the oil spigot shutting off overnight.


If Chavez’s hand-picked successor, Vice President Maduro, were to take office, he would likely seek to continue the special relationship.


Opposition leader Henrique Capriles has said he wants to end the oil-for-services barter arrangements, but could find that easier said than done should he win. The two countries are intertwined in dozens of joint accords, and poor Venezuelans who benefit from free care by Cuban doctors would be loath to see that disappear.


“You can’t flip the switch on a relationship like this,” said Melissa Lockhart Fortner, a Cuba analyst at the Pacific Council on International Policy, a Los Angeles-based institute that focuses on global affairs. “It would be terrible politics for him. … Switching that off would really endanger his support far too much for that to be really a feasible option.”


For Cuba, Chavez’s latest health scare capped off a year of disappointments in the island’s attempt to wean itself from Venezuelan energy.


Three deep-water exploratory oil wells drilled off the west coast failed to yield a strike, and last month the only oil rig in the world capable of drilling there without violating U.S. sanctions sailed away with no return in sight.


Yet time and again Havana has shown that it’s nothing if not resilient, weathering everything from U.S.-backed invasion and assassination plots in the 1960s to the austere “Special Period” in the early 1990s, when the Soviet collapse sent Cuba’s GDP plummeting 33 percent over four years. When hurricanes damaged the country’s agriculture sector and the global financial crisis squeezed tourism four years ago, Cuba tightened its belt, slashed imports and survived.


“Some people are saying the demise of Chavez is also going to be the demise of Communism in Cuba because the regime’s going to collapse and the people are going to rise up,” Feinberg said. “That’s probably yet another delusion of the anti-Castro exile community.”


Still, many Cubans are nervously tuning into the near-daily updates about Chavez’s health, carried prominently in state media.


“I don’t know what would happen here,” said 52-year-old Havana resident Magaly Ruiz. “We might end up eating grass.”


___


Associated Press writers Andrea Rodriguez and Anne-Marie Garcia in Havana contributed to this report.


___


Peter Orsi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Peter_Orsi


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Britain’s royal family attends Christmas services






LONDON (AP) — Britain‘s royal family is attending Christmas Day church services — with a few notable absences.


Wearing a turquoise coat and matching hat, Queen Elizabeth II arrived at St. Mary Magdelene Church on her sprawling Sandringham estate in Norfolk. She was accompanied in a Bentley by granddaughters Beatrice and Eugenie.






Her husband, Prince Philip, walked from the house to the church with other members of the royal family.


Three familiar faces were missing from the family outing. Prince William is spending the holiday with his pregnant wife Kate and his in-laws in the southern England village of Bucklebury. Prince Harry is serving with British troops in Afghanistan.


Later Tuesday, the queen will deliver her traditional, pre-recorded Christmas message, which for the first time will be broadcast in 3D.


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China consumers driving economic rebound: survey






BEIJING (Reuters) – China‘s consumers are leading an uneven recovery in the world’s second biggest economy that has retailers expecting stronger sales in six months, early results of a national survey showed on Wednesday.


The China Beige Book survey of more than 2,000 executives revealed that the retail sector had the strongest revenue growth and business expectations in the fourth quarter of 2012.






The survey broadly detected a mild economic recovery with the hard-hit sectors of real estate, mining and manufacturing – to a lesser extent – joining retail at the head of the upswing.


“The revenue growth pickup was notable in luxuries and durable goods – furniture, appliances, and autos,” said the survey, conducted between October 26 and December 2 by New York-based CBB International and based on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s economic report of the same name.


“Retailers’ mood remains quite hopeful, with 72 percent forecasting higher sales in six months, up 4 points on last quarter. A remarkably low 6 percent foresee declines,” it said, adding that 61 percent of retailers reported higher sales in the Q4 survey than in Q3.


The biggest bounces were seen in coastal Guangdong province, Beijing, the northeast and central regions of China – locations which Q3′s survey found had the biggest spending falls.


The retail rebound was not evenly distributed, however, with Shanghai and the southwest region recording falls in spending.


The survey’s findings are reflected in the most recent raft of economic indicators from China, revealing a mild rebound taking hold in Q4, and in policymaker comments.


China’s retail sales grew 14.9 percent year-on-year in November, ahead of the 14.6 percent forecast in a Reuters poll.


China is on course to end 2012 with the slowest full year of growth since 1999 and while the 7.7 percent rate forecast in a benchmark Reuters poll is way above the world’s other major economies, it is far below the roughly 10 percent annual growth seen for most of the last 30 years.


Weakness in the external environment remains a key drag on an economy in which exports generated 31 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, according to World Bank data, and where an estimated 200 million jobs are supported by foreign investment, or in factories producing for overseas markets.


RECOVERING, REBALANCING


The upside to the patchiness of the recovery is that it is being driven by services, which are calibrated more towards domestic demand. Geographic rebalancing away from prosperous coastal areas was also evident in the survey, with firms in the western region recording the highest revenue growth in Q4.


The survey had mixed findings for labor markets, with a 3 point rise to 34 percent in the proportion of firms citing an increased availability of unskilled labor, while 20 percent said shortages had increased.


Some 34 percent of firms increased their workforces in Q4 from Q3. Wage rises were reported by 52 percent of respondents.


Bankers questioned in the survey said credit conditions eased in Q4, but fewer firms borrowed. Meanwhile, banks and firms said loan rejections rose slightly, to 16 percent, and exposure to companies with excess production capacity was cut.


“Few corporate loans went to new customers: three-fifths of bankers say under 20 percent did — an astonishingly small number,” the survey said.


“Most were debt rollovers or loan increases for existing clients. This is not yet a period of strong expansion.”


The China Beige Book survey of face-to-face and telephone interviews compares conditions with the previous quarter and asks respondents to anticipate conditions three and six months ahead.


The survey sample includes executives from manufacturing, retail, service, transport, real estate and construction, farming, and mining. Respondents ran businesses of every size from the micro-level – employing up to 19 staff – to large firms with more than 500 employees. It also canvassed opinions from 160 bank loan officers and branch managers.


A detailed report of the survey’s full findings will be published in early January.


(Reporting by Nick Edwards; Editing by Robert Birsel)


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Early Childhood Obesity Rates Might Be Slowing Nation-Wide






About one in three children in the U.S. are now overweight, and since the 1980s the number of children who are obese has more than tripled. But a new study of 26.7 million young children from low-income families shows that in this group of kids, the tidal wave of obesity might finally be receding.Being obese as a child not only increases the risk of early-life health problems, such as joint problems, pre-diabetes and social stigmatization, but it also dramatically increases the likelihood of being obese later in life, which can lead to chronic diseases, including cancer, type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Children as young as 2 years of age can be obese–and even extremely obese. Early childhood obesity rates, which bring higher health care costs throughout a kid’s life, have been especially high among lower-income families.”This is the first national study to show that the prevalence of obesity and extreme obesity among young U.S. children may have begun to decline,” the researchers noted in a brief report published online December 25 in JAMA, The Journal of the American Medical Association. (Reports earlier this year suggested that childhood obesity rates were dropping in several U.S. cities.)The study examined rates of obesity (body mass index calculated by age and gender to be in the 95th percentile or higher–for example, a BMI above 20 for a 2-year-old male–compared with reference growth charts) and extreme obesity (BMI of more than 120 percent above that of the 95th percentile of the reference populations) in children ages 2 to 4 in 30 states and the District of Columbia. The researchers, led by Liping Pan, of the Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, combed through 12 years of data (1998 to 2010) from the Pediatric Nutritional Surveillance System, which includes information on roughly half of all children on the U.S. who are eligible for federal health care and nutrition assistance.A subtle but important shift in early childhood obesity rates in this low-income population seems to have begun in 2003. Obesity rates increased from 13.05 percent in 1998 to 15.21 percent in 2003. Soon, however, obesity rates began decreasing, reaching 14.94 percent by 2010. Extreme obesity followed a similar pattern, increasing from 1.75 percent to 2.22 percent from 1998 to 2003, but declining to 2.07 percent by 2010.Although these changes might seem small, the number of children involved makes for huge health implications. For example, each drop of just one tenth of a percentage point represents some 26,700 children in the study population alone who are no longer obese or extremely obese. And if these trends are occurring in the rest of the population, the long-term health and cost implications are massive.Public health agencies and the Obama Administration have made battling childhood obesity a priority, although these findings suggest that early childhood obesity rates, at least, were already beginning to decline nearly a decade ago. Some popular prevention strategies include encouraging healthier eating (by reducing intake of highly processed and high-sugar foods and increasing fruit and vegetable consumption) and increased physical activity (both at school and at home).The newly revealed trends “indicate modest recent progress of obesity prevention among young children,” the authors noted. “These finding may have important health implications because of the lifelong health risks of obesity and extreme obesity in early childhood.”


Follow Scientific American on Twitter @SciAm and @SciamBlogs.Visit ScientificAmerican.com for the latest in science, health and technology news.
© 2012 ScientificAmerican.com. All rights reserved.
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Huawei shows off 6.1-inch Android phablet ahead of CES [video]









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VP says Chavez up, walking; doubts persist






CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Vice President Nicolas Maduro surprised Venezuelans with a Christmas Eve announcement that President Hugo Chavez is up and walking two weeks after cancer surgery in Cuba, but the news did little to ease uncertainty surrounding the leader’s condition.


Sounding giddy, Maduro told state television Venezolana de Television that he had spoken by phone with Chavez for 20 minutes Monday night. It was the first time a top Venezuelan government official had confirmed talking personally with Chavez since the Dec. 11 operation, his fourth cancer surgery since 2011.






“He was in a good mood,” Maduro said. “He was walking, he was exercising.”


Chavez supporters reacted with relief, but the statement inspired more questions, given the sparse information the Venezuelan government has provided so far about the president’s cancer. Chavez has kept secret various details about his illness, including the precise location of the tumors and the type of cancer. His long-term prognosis remains a mystery.


Dr. Michael Pishvaian, an oncologist at Georgetown University’s Lombardi Cancer Center in Washington, said it was an encouraging sign that Chavez was walking, and it indicated he would be able to return to Venezuela relatively soon. But he said the long term outlook remained poor.


“It’s definitely good news. It means that he is on the road to recover fully from the surgery,” Pishvaian said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. “The overall prognosis is still pretty poor. He likely has a terminal diagnosis with his cancer that has come back.”


Pishvaian and other outside doctors have said that given the details Chavez has provided about his cancer, it is most likely a soft-tissue sarcoma.


Chavez first underwent surgery for an unspecified type of pelvic cancer in Cuba in June 2011 and went back this month after tests had found a return of malignant cells in the same area where tumors were previously removed.


Venezuelan officials said that, following the six-hour surgery two weeks ago, Chavez suffered internal bleeding that was stanched and a respiratory infection that was being treated.


Maduro’s announcement came just hours after Information Minister Ernesto Villegas read a statement saying Chavez was showing “a slight improvement with a progressive trend.”


Dr. Carlos Castro, director of the Colombian League against Cancer, an association that promotes cancer prevention, treatment and education, said Maduro’s announcement was too vague to paint a clear picture of Chavez’s condition.


“It’s possible (that he is walking) because everything is possible,” Castro told AP. “They probably had him sit in up in bed and take two steps.”


“It’s unclear what they mean by exercise. Was it four little steps?” he added. “I think he is still in critical condition.”


Maduro’s near-midnight announcement came just as Venezuelan families were gathering for traditional late Christmas Eve dinners and setting off the usual deafening fireworks that accompany the festivities. There was still little outward reaction on a quiet Christmas morning.


Danny Moreno, a software technician watching her 2-year-old son try out his new tricycle, was among the few people at a Caracas plaza who said she had heard Maduro’s announcement. She said she saw a government Twitter message saying an announcement was coming and her mother rushed to turn on the TV.


“We all said, thank God, he’s okay,” she said, smiling.


Dr. Gustavo Medrano, a lung specialist at the Centro Medico hospital in Caracas, said if Chavez is talking, it suggests he is breathing on his own despite the respiratory infection and is not in intensive care. But Medrano said he remained skeptical about Maduro’s comments and could deduce little from them about Chavez’s prognosis for recovery.


“I have no idea because if it was such a serious, urgent, important operation, and that was 14 days ago, I don’t think he could be walking and exercising after a surgery like that,” Medrano said.


Over the weekend, Chavez’s ally, Bolivian President Evo Morales, made a lightning visit to Cuba that only added to the uncertainty.


Journalists had been summoned to cover his arrival and departure in Havana, but hours later that invitation was canceled. No explanation was given, though it could have been due to confusion over Morales’ itinerary as he apparently arrived later than initially scheduled.


Cuban state media published photos of President Raul Castro receiving Morales at the airport and said he came “to express his support” for Chavez, his close ally, but did not give further details. He left Sunday without making any public comments.


For the second day in a row Tuesday, Morales made no mention of his trip to Cuba during public events in Bolivia.


Yet more questions surround Chavez’s political future, with the surgery coming two months after he won re-election to a six-year term.


If he is unable to continue in office, the Venezuelan Constitution calls for new elections to be held. Chavez has asked his followers to back Maduro, his hand-picked successor, in that event.


Venezuelan officials have said Chavez might not return in time for his Jan. 10 inauguration.


Opposition leaders have argued that the constitution does not allow the president’s swearing-in to be postponed, and say new elections should be called if Chavez is unable to take the oath on time.


But government officials have said the constitution lets the Supreme Court administer the oath of office at any time if the National Assembly is unable to do it Jan. 10 as scheduled.


___


Associated Press writers Peter Orsi in Havana, Vivian Sequera in Caracas, Camilo Hernandez in Bogota, Colombia, and Paola Flores in La Paz, Bolivia, contributed to this report.


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Former South African president Mandela “much better”: Zuma






JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Former South African president and anti-apartheid hero Nelson Mandela is looking much better after more than two weeks in hospital, President Jacob Zuma said on Tuesday.


Zuma, who visited Mandela on Christmas Day, said in a statement that doctors were happy with the progress the elder statesman was making.






“We found him in good spirits. He was happy to have visitors on this special day and is looking much better. The doctors are happy with the progress that he is making,” said Zuma.


The 94-year-old Nobel Peace laureate has been in hospital in Pretoria for more than two weeks after being admitted for routine tests and then undergoing surgery to remove gallstones.


Zuma, who has just been re-elected as president of the ruling African National Congress party, last week described Mandela’s condition as serious. Periodic statements from the presidency continue to stress that the veteran politician is responding to treatment.


No date has been given for his release from hospital. Mandela, who is internationally admired for his struggle against minority white rule, retired from public life in 2004 after serving one term as South Africa‘s first black president.


(Reporting by Sherilee Lakmidas; Editing by Andrew Osborn)


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The Web v. Your Financial Planner






My wife and I had been putting off getting a financial planner for at least a year. This was in keeping with our—OK, my—habit of delaying efforts on things that had a Limited Immediate Payoff and were generally considered Good for One’s Future. But after a second child and new jobs for both of us, it seemed time for someone to help us figure out what to do with our money.


I once worked at a personal-finance magazine, albeit writing more about how to spend than how to save, so I felt mildly knowledgeable about what people should do with their money. The gospel of financial planning is pretty commonsensical: Spend less than you earn; save for retirement before your kids’ college costs; invest in low-cost index funds from Vanguard and the like. Leave stockpicking to gamblers, etc.






My time in personal finance also gave me a solid network of friends and former colleagues who could recommend a planner for my own needs. As it turned out, they all recommended the same one. Armed with their unanimous endorsement, my wife and I scheduled an appointment.


I should interrupt here: That dutiful, responsible impulse to seek out a planner was present in both of us, but there was something more self-aggrandizing at work, too. Hiring a planner implies that you have finances sufficient to require planning. While what we sought to do was not purely a luxury—it is, after all, a good idea to have a plan for your money—there was a part of all this that was pleasing and affirmative that we had “made it.”


ff8cf  invest advice  02inline  405 The Web v. Your Financial PlannerPhotograph by Charlie Engman for Bloomberg Businessweek; Graphic by Jessica Hagy


We went to visit our financial planner-to-be and were immediately reassured by the Park Avenue address, a well-appointed waiting room with crown molding, and framed photos and letters from happy, affluent families. To top it off, the planner was a fee-only shop, which meant it earned no commissions from the financial products it recommended. (This is really the only kind of planner you should ever talk to.)


My wife and I had a lengthy conversation with the two owners of the firm and an associate. They asked us roughly 972 questions, which may sound tedious but was actually delightful. First off, the questions were about ourselves, so that’s fun; in this way, financial planning is very much like psychotherapy. Second, we felt that every question brought us one step closer to our sustainable, responsible financial future. It was like the financial equivalent of exercising.


We left the advisers’ offices excited and relieved. Our money would be properly allocated, our investments guided to the most efficient mutual funds, and our spending kept within bounds—all by sensible, highly educated men and women in really, really nice suits. All we had to do was furnish the firm with our most up-to-date financial information and fill out a questionnaire together to assess things like our tolerance for risk.


Oh, and we had to pay them $ 5,000.


The first two steps we addressed swiftly. I got PDFs of banking statements and the like and e-mailed them within a couple of days. My wife and I sat down one evening and went through the 30-page questionnaire, answering questions about what we would do if we bought a stock and it cratered six months later (we answered “c”: do nothing and ride it out) and outlining our financial goals for the future (“not be broke” was our animating principle).


It was the $ 5,000 that was the sticking point. While my wife and I were making good money, $ 5,000 is still a considerable chunk of change. I would often think about it this way: If you added together all our retirement accounts—IRAs, 401(k)s, etc.—we had about $ 200,000 socked away. Now, if the planner’s taking $ 5,000, then the first 2.5 percent that money earned would be replacing what we paid the planner. That seemed like a fairly big ante.


Then I read an article about online financial-planning websites like LearnVest, NestWise, and Plan & Act that offer similar services for far less. I could think of 5,000 reasons to look at the alternatives.
 
 
I signed up with NestWise, which was founded by a Wharton professor. For $ 250, NestWise would match you to one of its 17 advisers. Your adviser would craft a detailed financial plan that you would execute. All we had to do was furnish the firm with our most up-to-date financial information and fill out a questionnaire to assess things like our tolerance for risk.


Sound familiar? That’s what struck me. In practice, this wasn’t terribly different than what Park Avenue was offering. In both cases, all my wife and I were seeking was a road map for our finances: Save X each month in your 401(k)s, set aside this much to grow your emergency fund, and so on. Whether that was done in an office of fine leather and rich mahogany or on my laptop while I, pantsless, ate Hot Cheetos was immaterial.


The first step you take with NestWise is to fill out a “FactFinder”—an omnibus statement of your income, assets, and liabilities. The FactFinder has some neat tricks: If your employer is in NestWise’s database, FactFinder can automatically pull in all the funds available in your company’s 401(k), saving you the chore of entering them manually. The FactFinder goes to a living, breathing financial adviser, who crafts an assessment and action plan. My adviser, who works in Florida, was prompt, courteous, and professional. If I e-mailed him, I got a reply within 24 hours, and most often within just a couple of hours.


I finished my FactFinder on Friday, Nov. 30. On Monday, Dec. 3, I received two documents from my adviser: a financial plan and an action plan. The 23-page financial plan included information like how much I’d be able to spend per month in retirement if I followed the plan’s suggestions ($ 15,273) and what I’d need to save each month to fully fund private out-of-state college for my two kids, aged six and two ($ 1,110).


The action plan was a series of steps we would need to take to meet the goals laid out in the financial plan. Here’s how it broke down:
 
• We should have an emergency fund. Everyone should have a cash cushion in case of crises such as major home repair, health expenses, or unemployment. A rule of thumb is to save the equivalent of at least three months’ expenses. In our case, that would be $ 30,000.
 
• My wife and I can participate in 401(k) plans—my adviser suggested we each contribute the maximum allowable amount ($ 17,500 annually). I should put my money into six of the available funds: five Vanguard index funds (surprise, surprise) and one actively managed emerging-markets fund.
 
• My 401(k) has good fund choices, apparently, and my wife’s doesn’t. But she does have the option to self-direct her 401(k), which would open up her options. She should sign up for that and then our adviser would have fund recommendations.
 
• We can contribute up to $ 5,500 each annually to an IRA. My adviser suggested we do that, too, after first determining if we could, and provided fund recommendations.
 
• Old 401(k)s from our previous employers should be rolled over into IRAs (something we’d been meaning to do anyway).
 
• A fairly simple equation that accounts for our children’s ages, compounded interest, and inflation gave us the amount we should save for in their 529 plans.
 
• I have a $ 1 million life insurance policy, but I should get more—at least another million. My wife should get some life insurance as well—also at least a $ 1 million policy.
 
• We should get long-term disability insurance. My wife should get a will (I already have one), and we both should get living wills and powers of attorney, which you can do online through sites like LegalZoom for $ 69.
 
And that’s pretty much that. Would the Park Avenue planners have provided a plan that was terribly different? I don’t think so, and, more important, I don’t think I’d want them to. What I got from NestWise is a very straightforward, low-cost plan—both in terms of the cost to get it and the recommendations it makes. It avoids risky strategies like picking individual stocks but also recognizes we have a fairly long time horizon and we’re ready to weather some ups and downs in the market.


For some people, a firm like the one I visited on Park Avenue may be ideal. The planners there can help figure out estate planning, trusts, tax strategies. And if you have those kinds of issues, then $ 5,000 is probably not as big a deal to you. But spending five large on advice is a lot of money to me. It’s also probably overkill. I learned something working at that personal-finance magazine—financial advice is partially sold on the myth that we are all like snowflakes, that each of us is unique and we require bespoke financial plans that account for the particular contours of our financial position.


I’m not that special. I’m part of a two-earner household with two young kids, no credit-card debt, a mortgage, and a habit of spending too much on restaurants from time to time. If you know my income, my assets, and my liabilities, it’s not terribly hard to plot out a sensible financial plan for me. Park Avenue was going to charge me 20 times what NestWise did. Was their advice really going to be 20 times better? Probably not.


So if your life details are common, what are you paying for? You’re paying for coaches and cheerleaders. It’s the same reason people join health clubs. After all, if you want to lose weight and get fit, it’s simple: Eat better and exercise more. But not everyone can do that on their own—they need to pay a gym or a trainer for motivation.


What NestWise has done is retain all the things we seek from a financial planner—judgment, guidance, and enthusiasm—and jettisoned the rest to drive costs down. There’s no Park Avenue lease to pay, no crown moldings to dust. It’s another case of the Internet replacing in-person, brick-and-mortar businesses. And who’s to say the price stops at $ 250? What if, for $ 149 or $ 99, I had access to a sophisticated program that made the same recommendations I once got from a human? Would I even know the difference? (This is the personal-finance version of the Turing test.)


Obviously, there will always be people who want a human on the job. But some of us may not need that. The Internet continues to give consumers tools that used to be restricted to professionals. Think about all the ways you can research mutual funds online or find the best credit card or home loan. Online services like NestWise may not provide as much of the handholding as traditional advisers, but many of us may not need it.


It’s not like other industries haven’t already gone through this evolution. Think I’m wrong? Ask a travel agent.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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